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ADP +77K, Far Lower than Expected; Tariff News Forthcoming?
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Wednesday, March 5, 2025
This week in the stock market has been dominated by tariff policy generating from the White House. President Trump spoke about them at length (he spoke at length about a great many things) during last night’s State of the Union address, and the mere specter of imposing 20% or 25% on our main trading partners — and they on our exports — has played a big hand in sending market indexes down between 2.5-5% over the past five days of trading.
We started out this morning in the green across the board, but now see the Dow -22 points, the S&P 500 flat, the Nasdaq moving from +224 points earlier to +50 points now, and the small-cap Russell 2000 +8 points. Although Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just moments ago said an announcement on tariffs may be forthcoming by this afternoon.
For instance, Lutnick suggested the White House will be looking at trimming tariffs based on compliance with the U.S. MCA trade policy, including domestic automakers. It has been reported elsewhere that should already announced tariffs move forward, automakers will necessarily cut production by around 30%. As a result, Ford (F - Free Report) shares are +2%, General Motors (GM - Free Report) +5%, and even Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is up +1% at this hour in the early session.
ADP Private-Sector Payrolls Miss Estimates: +77K
Jobs Week kicks off this Hump Day with the February private-sector payrolls report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) . A headline +77K new jobs filled in the private sector is roughly half of the +148K expected, and the lowest we’ve seen since the outlier +36K from back in July of last year. This is a far cry from the upwardly revised +186K reported for January. Perhaps the February number is also an outlier; time will tell.
Goods-producing jobs did quite well last month, relatively: +42K. In fact, it outshone the +36K in private-sector Services for the first time in recent memory. Nonfarm payroll estimates for Friday morning’s Employment Situation report remain at +170K, but we feel at least a few analysts have their slide rules out right now.
Small firms (fewer than 50 employees) lost -12K positions in the private sector last month. Large companies (over 500 workers) gained +37K. Medium-sized businesses outperformed the others with +46K new private-sector jobs filled. They were led by Leisure & Hospitality (+41K), followed by Professional & Business Services (+27K) and Financial Activities (+26K). Education & Healthcare, normally a segment leader in job growth, shed -28K private-sector positions last month. Trade/Transportation/Utilities was even worse: -33K for February.
One unique metric from the ADP report every month is the Job Stayers versus Job Changers dynamic in pay compensation — a good gauge for wage growth. Job Stayers last month averaged making +4.7% more from this period the previous year — flat, month over month. Job Changers averaged +6.7% in wage gains, 10 basis points (bps) fewer than last month’s print.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
Aside from Howard Lutnick’s announcement about tariffs later today, we have plenty of economic reports awaiting us after the opening bell rings. Final S&P Services PMI for February is expected to tick up closer to the 50 level (which designates growth from contraction) without quite getting there, while ISM Services is expected to remain above 50. Factory Orders for January are expected to swing to a positive number after the previous month’s -0.9%, and the Fed’s Beige Book comes out at 2pm ET today.
Image: Bigstock
ADP +77K, Far Lower than Expected; Tariff News Forthcoming?
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
This week in the stock market has been dominated by tariff policy generating from the White House. President Trump spoke about them at length (he spoke at length about a great many things) during last night’s State of the Union address, and the mere specter of imposing 20% or 25% on our main trading partners — and they on our exports — has played a big hand in sending market indexes down between 2.5-5% over the past five days of trading.
We started out this morning in the green across the board, but now see the Dow -22 points, the S&P 500 flat, the Nasdaq moving from +224 points earlier to +50 points now, and the small-cap Russell 2000 +8 points. Although Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just moments ago said an announcement on tariffs may be forthcoming by this afternoon.
For instance, Lutnick suggested the White House will be looking at trimming tariffs based on compliance with the U.S. MCA trade policy, including domestic automakers. It has been reported elsewhere that should already announced tariffs move forward, automakers will necessarily cut production by around 30%. As a result, Ford (F - Free Report) shares are +2%, General Motors (GM - Free Report) +5%, and even Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is up +1% at this hour in the early session.
ADP Private-Sector Payrolls Miss Estimates: +77K
Jobs Week kicks off this Hump Day with the February private-sector payrolls report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) . A headline +77K new jobs filled in the private sector is roughly half of the +148K expected, and the lowest we’ve seen since the outlier +36K from back in July of last year. This is a far cry from the upwardly revised +186K reported for January. Perhaps the February number is also an outlier; time will tell.
Goods-producing jobs did quite well last month, relatively: +42K. In fact, it outshone the +36K in private-sector Services for the first time in recent memory. Nonfarm payroll estimates for Friday morning’s Employment Situation report remain at +170K, but we feel at least a few analysts have their slide rules out right now.
Small firms (fewer than 50 employees) lost -12K positions in the private sector last month. Large companies (over 500 workers) gained +37K. Medium-sized businesses outperformed the others with +46K new private-sector jobs filled. They were led by Leisure & Hospitality (+41K), followed by Professional & Business Services (+27K) and Financial Activities (+26K). Education & Healthcare, normally a segment leader in job growth, shed -28K private-sector positions last month. Trade/Transportation/Utilities was even worse: -33K for February.
One unique metric from the ADP report every month is the Job Stayers versus Job Changers dynamic in pay compensation — a good gauge for wage growth. Job Stayers last month averaged making +4.7% more from this period the previous year — flat, month over month. Job Changers averaged +6.7% in wage gains, 10 basis points (bps) fewer than last month’s print.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
Aside from Howard Lutnick’s announcement about tariffs later today, we have plenty of economic reports awaiting us after the opening bell rings. Final S&P Services PMI for February is expected to tick up closer to the 50 level (which designates growth from contraction) without quite getting there, while ISM Services is expected to remain above 50. Factory Orders for January are expected to swing to a positive number after the previous month’s -0.9%, and the Fed’s Beige Book comes out at 2pm ET today.
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